Author: Muharem Rusiti
Two decades have passed since the beginning of the twenty-first century. The last twenty years have been marked by changes that have unavoidably transformed the world. Some have been epochal, others less so.
While we know the past and present, predicting the future is no easy task. Yet, trying to anticipate it with some degree of confidence – based on current trends – is not impossible and plays an important role in the fields of international affairs and policy making.
Forecasting forthcoming events is in fact crucial in helping decision-makers forward-plan, prepare, conceive policies, and take better decisions in order to prevent, mitigate and avoid risks and concurrently exploit potential opportunities; depending on possible future societal scenarios.
Therefore – after researching and studying current global developments and tendencies – we have made a list of five potential changes that are likely to happen in the near future and which could have different implications and impact international affairs – and the world in general – in different ways.
1. State-issued digital currencies and a cashless society
We all know the old-fashioned metal coins and the paper money banknotes, followed by debit and credit cards. Well, they could all soon become part of our archived history. It all started with the bitcoins and other similar unofficial cryptocurrencies and the digital wallets and it will much probably lead in the very near future to the gradual appearance of Central Bank Digital Currencies – and perhaps even to an official universal digital currency – which would revolutionize the whole international monetary system as we know it today.
Moreover, this transition would be hopefully gradual and orderly and not dictated by a sudden international financial and monetary crisis.
2. Climate migration and refugees
Especially for older generations, it is hard to believe that someday people could be forced to flee their homeland not only due to armed conflicts, political or economic reasons, but also due to climate issues afflicting their everyday life in their nation of origin and potentially be a fuel for geopolitical tensions around the globe, particularly in regions nearby crisis zones.
Furthermore, in the next future some countries would forcibly even take into consideration the recognition of the right to asylum due to climate reasons.
3. Widespread digital voting systems
One of the measures that authorities usually implement during a state of emergency like a war, a pandemic or any other calamity – as we saw during the Covid crisis – is to delay elections and votes. And in representative democracies – although often necessary – this is considered as one of the most extreme steps a government can take.
In order to avoid such situations and to encourage greater civic engagement, in the future almost every democratic country will enable new digital voting systems, relegating traditional polling stations and ballot boxes to the museums.
To ensure the safety and fairness of voting, from a user’s point of view 2FA and different biometric measures will be the minimum standard of access, while to prevent the hacking and potential manipulations of centralized data storage and transmission systems there will be new security technologies currently still under development.
4. Energy revolution and net zero mobility
Climate change and other environmental issues will inevitably initiate innovation out of necessity and new technologies will certainly help effect transformation. Fast-charging electric vehicles – with a full refill that will take a maximum of 10 minutes – will be considered business as usual and drivers will stop at a service station and see their cars fully replenished with the necessary energy in the time it takes to have a coffee. Another revolutionary innovation in the mobility sector will be hydrogen-powered airplanes, able to fly around the world as zero-carbon emitters.
These innovations will of course create some challenges to the supply of electric energy primarily – especially if not addressed in advance by policymakers – and create some issues to the economies of those countries whose finances are greatly dependent on the export of oil and as a consequence have incalculable effects and be potentially the cause of tensions and political and institutional instability in these nations.
5. Misinformation: more accountability and officially verified online profiles
Due to the growing concerns about the accuracy of information encountered online and the huge impact it has on society, more efforts will be made to identify spreaders of misinformation and fake news. One of the main steps that will probably be taken in order to address and solve this long-standing issue is not only to improve the media and digital literacy of people but also to make everyone accountable for the content they share. To achieve this, governments will possibly introduce new, more stringent legislation and at the same time make it compulsory that every online account is linked to a real-world person and ask thus for instance that all profiles on social media are officially verified.
Protecting citizens from misinformation is essential – particularly when it comes to the manipulation of the political discourse – and thus measures need to be taken, but then of course the challenge will be to find an equilibrium between granting freedom of speech and opinion and preventing censorship on one side and combating misleading and deceptive information on the other side.
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