Author: Muharem Rusiti
The United Kingdom has been an important player on the world stage in modern history, with strong diplomatic, cultural, economic, and military ties to a number of key partners. Its decision to leave the European Union after the so-called Brexit referendum was a turning point that marked a significant shift not only in London’s rapport with Brussels, but also in the outline of its overall future foreign policy and its relations with other international actors.
As the UK tries to chart a new course in the post-Brexit era that will allow His Majesty’s Government to safeguard or even further enhance its position as a key player in the global chess board, it is of fundamental importance that London continues to simultaneously nurture its relationships with its historic allies while also waving new bonds with other partners.
In this article, we will hence explore the UK’s relationships with its diverse international counterparts and how it could further develop these ties in the forthcoming years in order to preserve or even reinforce its position in the global arena, particularly under the guidance of the so-called Global Britain vision.
The Global Britain Vision
The new course of UK’s foreign policy for a better, more proactive and wide-reaching engagement in international affairs was drafted shortly after its citizens voted to leave the Brussels club. During a speech at the Conservative Party’s conference held in the fall of 2016, then Prime Minister of the UK Theresa May presented in fact what her government had labelled as the Global Britain vision, a new foreign policy strategy for its post-Brexit era:
“Today, we’re going to talk about Global Britain, our ambitious vision for Britain after Brexit. Because 100 days ago, that is what the country voted for. We’re going to talk about a Britain in which we are close friends, allies and trading partners with our European neighbors. But a Britain in which we pass our own laws and govern ourselves. In which we look beyond our continent and to the opportunities in the wider world. In which we win trade agreements with old friends and new partners. In which Britain is always the most passionate, most consistent, most convincing advocate for free trade. In which we play our full part in promoting peace and prosperity around the world.” [1]
European Union
Despite the tensions and the negative impact caused by Brexit, as outlined in the Global Britain vision the UK is well aware that the European Union still remains a key ally, especially considering the fact that it is its largest trading partner, and that cooperation between the two is vital for the prosperity of both sides. Notwithstanding, trading figures have unfortunately continued to plummet after the leave vote, with the UK being seemingly harmed the most. In 2021 in fact, although the EU accounted still for 43% of the UK’s total trade (42% of overall exports towards the EU and 45% of imports from the EU), these numbers were more than 10% below the peak reached in the earlier years.[2] But what is even more concerning for Britain, is the negative trade deficit trend in act with the EU in the last period. In the fourth quarter of 2022, statistics show for example that the UK’s trade deficit with the EU widened to a record of £33 billion, as exports to the EU fell 6.1%, while imports surged 7.5%, registering thus the largest gap since records began in 1997.[3]
Looking at this data, it becomes clear that trade between the two parties has been on a negative drift in recent years, and that it is in the best interest of both sides, but particularly of the UK, to try to find new solutions in order to ameliorate the current situation. One way this could be achieved is by negotiating a new mutually beneficial, more flexible and encompassing bilateral trade deal, that will help restore and maintain a high level of exchange of goods and services between both sides. A mission apparently very arduous but certainly not impossible, seeing the latest developments and the willingness of both parties in overcoming the tensions caused by Brexit, as the recent Windsor Framework agreement on the Irish border issues demonstrated.
A good occasion to make adjustments and find new solutions in this direction could be the mandatory reviewing process of the current Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed in 2020 – which regulates post-Brexit trade relations between the UK and the EU, and scheduled to take place in 2025. If political conditions remain favorable and both sides show the necessary goodwill, flexibility, and creativity on the negotiating table, it could be in fact a great opportunity to improve the current agreement by increasing its depth and openness.
But the UK and the EU have also other shared interests and values that go well beyond trade and commerce, such as the promotion of democracy and the rule of law, defense and security matters, banking and financial activities, economic investments, scientific research, technological advancement, governance, energy supply and the development of renewable sources, and fight against climate change. Thus, it is important for both sides to continue to collaborate in a constructive way in order to make the most out of their partnership, and when necessary, to also coordinate their voice and efforts in the international stage. This encompasses strategies to effectively promote and defend their shared interests, values, and stances on different subject matters, especially within the framework of international organizations such as the UN and NATO.
Bilateral relations with single EU member states
The UK may no longer be a member of the European Union, but it remains a European nation with longstanding ties to its neighboring countries. As such, it must imperatively work to maintain positive relations and further develop its bilateral collaboration with single EU states, particularly in areas that do not fall under Brussels’ regulation and jurisdiction. The 36th Franco-British summit held recently in Paris, which ended with a new bilateral border patrol and security pact aimed at tackling the illegal cross-Channel migration that exacerbated after Brexit, could certainly be considered as a first important step in this direction.[4]
Other European countries
As part of its Global Britain vision, the UK should of course also build stronger bonds and enhance its partnership in different domains with other European but non-EU member states such as Switzerland, Norway, and Iceland that share similar interests. It is also an opportunity to learn from these countries in terms of how they have developed fruitful ties with Brussels, while retaining their sovereignty.
Under the impetus of the recently signed bilateral trade agreements with these nations[5], London could perhaps try to exploit the momentum to also form an extended alliance or a joint working group with these nations. The focus could entail how to ease and promote their relations with the EU and facilitate their dialogue with Brussels, possibly granting a more sympathetic and better negotiating position vis-à-vis the European Union on different key issues.
Additionally, the UK could also take into consideration the option of fully rejoining someday the European Free Trade Agreement (EFTA) to which it was originally one of the founding members, conceded of course that it is willing to accept some of the organization’s rules and regulations.
United States
The UK has long been one of America’s closest allies and its main interlocutor and partner of reference within the EU, as the two countries share deep historical, cultural, linguistic, academic, economic, military, and political connections. In the Brexit aftermath and as part of the Global Britain plan, the two parties should hence seize the moment and try to further strengthen their so-called Special Relationship. Perhaps through a series of novel agreements, especially in the fields that were once regulated by Brussels or which offer yet unexplored opportunities, may present a great potential in terms of an enhanced partnership for both parties.
As the UK is able to independently negotiate free trade agreements with other nations after Brexit entered into force, the two sides of the Atlantic optimistically embarked on a series of talks and negotiations in this sphere in 2020 under The United Kingdom–United States Free Trade Agreement (UKUSFTA)[6]. If the end result is a successful deal between the two, this will be a game changer which brings many benefits for both sides due to the unique compatibility of the two economies, but also place London in a privileged position, when compared to other international players. A potential agreement in this domain will in fact be particularly important, considering that Washington is London’s second largest trading partner and that if we look at individual countries the US is even UK’s number one partner on the list.[7]
Furthermore, a renewed partnership between the two Anglophone allies should also continue to focus on other areas such as academic collaboration, banking and fintech, new emerging technologies, AI, global security, traditional and cyber defense, and foreign policy coordination in different domains of shared interest. The recent trilateral AUKUS partnership between the UK, the US, and Australia seems to be an important step in the direction of a renewed and enhanced alliance with parties engaged in an effort to strengthen their cooperation particularly in the fields of cyber defense, submarine capabilities, and the development of new advanced technologies; although there is still room for an even greater collaboration in the others areas mentioned above.
Only by proactively fostering its cooperation with an ancient ally and important international actor such as the US in diverse spheres of strategic relevance for both sides, can the UK truly increase the odds of its Global Britain project to thrive, and as a consequence, more easily safeguard, promote its position and interests worldwide.
Other important global partners
Lastly, if the UK wants its vision of a Global Britain to fully succeed, it is clear that it should also put its focus and efforts on strengthening its ties with other major world players in different spheres of interest; especially now that it is not restricted to do so anymore by EU constraints. More specifically, London should particularly seek to enhance its bonds in diverse fields with nations who are members of the Commonwealth, new and historical partners in the Middle East, and different other countries around the globe such as Brazil, Türkiye, Mexico, Indonesia, China, and South Korea; after it successfully reached bilateral commerce deals with Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.[8]
By building closer relationships – mainly in the form of free trade agreements – and enhancing bilateral cooperation in various other areas of mutual interest, the UK should exploit its privileged position and competitive advantage, compared to EU member states, and try to establish itself as an important partner. It should incorporate opportunities in different regions of the world while simultaneously reinforcing in this way its position as a key player in the international stage.
Final considerations
After the Brexit referendum and its formal withdrawal from the European Union, the United Kingdom embarked on a journey never experienced by any country in history before. Certainly, the challenges posed by its decision to leave the EU have been initially somehow unexpected and laborious, to say the least. But opportunities offered by this new path, should equally not be underestimated, especially if exploited in a smart and extensive way, by a country that in spite of all the recent happenings, still egregiously ranks as the 6th economy in the world.[9]
By taking advantage of the new possibilities presented by the post-Brexit era, especially thanks to its ability to negotiate deals without the constraints imposed by EU membership, the UK can in fact not only engage in its efforts to safeguard its interests but also to extend its international reach and further reinforce its position in global affairs in an independent and thus more flexible way.
But in order to effectively do so, His Majesty’s Government must proactively and tirelessly engage in international affairs, by enhancing bilateral and multilateral cooperation both with its longstanding and new potential partners in diverse fields of strategic interest, but above all by promoting two-sided free trade agreements.
The Global Britain vision is undoubtedly an ambitious and bright foreign policy strategy, which should continue to stand at the core of UK’s future engagement in international relations. And as limiting and contradictory as it may seem, the full realization and success of this vision greatly depends on the positive future of UK-EU relations. Of course, there are still challenges in fully rebuilding trust and restoring the ties between the UK and the EU, but with goodwill and cooperation everything can be overcome, as the previously mentioned Windsor Framework demonstrated. It is therefore particularly important to gain momentum now and possibly enter into early talks on how to ameliorate the TCA or on the possibility for the UK to rapidly join the scientific research Horizon Europe initiative as an associate country.
Furthermore, as it navigates the post-Brexit landscape, the UK should also put its focus on deepening its relations with other major partners such as the US, India, South Korea, and Australia, among others, if it wishes its Global Britain project to fully flourish. By maintaining close ties with traditional allies and building positive relationships with emerging actors – especially in the form of free trade deals, the UK can ensure that it benefits from the new opportunities and minimizes the risks and damages that may have surfaced after its decision to leave the EU.
The future plans and intentions delineated in the Global Britain vision and the steps that London has taken so far in this direction are to be considered really commendable, yet not completely satisfactory as there is still work to be done. Diverse bilateral talks and negotiations seem in fact to be somewhat lagging, as a confirmed by a recent British Parliamentary report, which outlined for instance that despite ongoing consultations since 2020, the UK-US free trade agreement is not expected to be concluded anywhere soon.[10]
This delay in fostering some relationships and quickly forging new deals is due partially to the Covid-pandemic and the instability of British governments, which has so far seen 5 different Prime Ministers since Brexit in 2016 occurred. The ever-shifting government coupled with a very constrictive free trade agreement with the EU, has had an international political impact for the UK but also negative economic effects. As data previously revealed in fact, not only did trade volume shrink and trade deficit with the EU widen, even more concerning is that the UK is also expected by the IMF’s forecasts to be the only G7 economy to contract in 2023.[11]
Hence, it is imperative for the UK to continue along the path undertaken so far in enhancing interactions with its historic and new partners. If it aspires to successfully safeguard its interests, reinforce its position in the international arena and ultimately see its post-Brexit Global Britain vision thrive, it requires an engagement that is more proactive and swift especially with regards to its bilateral trade rapports with the EU.
[1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-conference-speech-article-50-brexit-eu-a7341926.html [2] https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdf [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-10/uk-trade-deficit-with-eu-hits-record-as-brexit-curtails-exports?leadSource=uverify%20wall [4] https://www.lemonde.fr/en/europe/article/2023/03/10/macron-and-sunak-agree-to-uk-france-migrant-deal-in-reset-summit_6018871_143.html [5] https://www.efta.int/free-trade/Other-trade-agreements/United-Kingdom [6] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-us-start-trade-negotiations [7] https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdf [8] https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-uks-trade-agreements [9] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/uk-slips-behind-india-to-become-world-s-sixth-biggest-economy [10] https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9314/ [11] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/02/uk-country-recession-economy-chart/
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