Author: Ajsha Pllana
Contributor: Valonë Pllana
Photo bySamuel Jerónimo on Unsplash
Since December 2021, U.S. intelligence agencies have accurately predicted Putin’s imminent invasion of Ukraine. Even when Ukraine urged for calm in early February, the White House persisted through strategic public releases of information to warn of Russia’s imminent attack. Some American convervative media outlets ridiculed Biden and accused him of pushing a false narrative that would create fear and chaos. Fast forward, the accuracy of President Biden's assessment of Putin's impending invasion of Ukraine has forged a unified front against Moscow among the trans-Atlantic alliance.
The Biden Administration's ability to properly forecast the invasion and give the West a significant edge from the outset is remarkable. Worth considering is how the U.S. intelligence community managed to collect sensitive material from Russia. Generally speaking, intelligence on a particular nation or actor occurs in coordination and cooperation of multiple nations. In the case of Russia, U.S. and UK intelligence agencies appear to have uncovered Putin’s short- and long-term objectives in Ukraine. Russia is a nation that habitually employs cyber attacks and hacking. It would be naïve to assume that Russia would not protect information regarding the “special operation” in Ukraine. The question then arises whether the Russian Intelligence community and oligarchs relinquished information related to the invasion of Ukraine to obstruct Putin’s plan of going forward with the war. Certainly there are details that might suggest the FSB (Russia’s Federal Security Service, formerly known as KGB) and oligarchs may be responsible for key details being released to the US intelligence community.
Russians face great consequences speaking out against Putin
There are a few reasons why Russians may be actively working to foil Putin’s plan of attacking Ukraine. The first and most obvious reason is that most of Russia’s billionaires have their funds stored in foreign banks. The majority of wealthy Russians secure their funds in foreign accounts and they understood that financial sanctions would be the first retaliation they would face by the U.S. and Allies. In 2018, the Moscow Times reported that two-thirds of Russian millionaires hold their money abroad. Putin urged for the “de-offshorization” of funds, by allowing wealthy Russians to return up to $3 billion home to Russia, anonymously, via government-issued bonds. The reason why Russian millionaires and billionaires prefer to keep their money in foreign accounts may be well explained by Bill Browder as he details his experience with the Kremlin in his book, “Red Notice.” Browder explained that Russian authorities made false tax evasion accusations, resulting in the confiscation of his corporate seals and stamps. The government then used this information to essentially complete an erasure of Browder’s hedge-fund, Hermitage Capital. In a nutshell, wealthy Russians know if they speak out against Putin or if they are targeted by the Kremlin, their assets can be seized and all evidence destroyed. Funds shielded in foreign accounts are secured by national and international laws, a protection that the Russian government does not grant.
Combined efforts with the U.S. Intelligence to deter Ukrainian Invasion
Another important reason why Russian intelligence and oligarchs may have contributed to the information leaks is the obvious danger that may befall Putin’s dissidents. There are many examples for this method, however one of the most obvious cases known internationally is the arrest of Alexei Navalny, who is arguably the most prominent political opponent for Putin. In early 2020, Navalny was poisoned with the lethal nerve agent Novichok, which was planted in his underpants. Following his stint in a German hospital for his poisoning, he was arrested upon his arrival in Moscow in early 2021. He has been sentenced to three-and-a-half years in prison for fraudulent, arbitrary embezzlement charges and is facing another fifteen-year prison term as we speak. Sergei Magnitsky, whom the Magnitsky Act is named after, died in the Matrosskaya Tishina Prison in 2009 for serving as Bill Browder’s lawyer and exposing corruption by Russian government officials. In short, Putin does not hesitate to quell dissidents by the use of arbitrary arrests and even punishing them with death. In the case of Ukraine, Russian intelligence agencies and oligarchs who may oppose Putin’s invasion of Ukraine would have to be very cautious how they go about opposing the plan. If they speak out, they risk being arrested and killed. Therefore, alerting U.S. agencies and the Biden Administration would be the most secure way forward. Ukraine receives foreign aid and is an ally to the U.S., therefore news of an invasion would be challenged by the U.S.
Targeted sanctions would likely follow
Russians correctly predicted the targeted financial sanctions that would be applied by the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is almost customary at this point, that sanctions are imposed by the U.S. and Allies to limit the military and financial capabilities of states they deem to be rogue. This is something they feared and hoped would be mitigated by properly warning the U.S. and E.U. with the hopes to prevent and deter Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine. In turn, the damage to the Russian economy and the sanctions imposed on wealthy Russians would be minimized.
Russian citizens understand that the majority of Europeans have an aversion to war and strongly contend any discussion of a violent conflict. Take for example, Serbia’s invasion of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the subsequent invasion of Kosova. The U.S.-led NATO bombings, along with targeted sanctions foiled Serbia’s plan to realize the dream of establishing A Greater Serbia even through means of genocide and ethnic cleansing. In fact, the invasions had the opposite effect, greatly disrupting Serbia's economy and its ability to join the European Union. Russians are well aware that wars have a high risk of financial disaster, and that Russia will almost certainly face debilitating financial sanctions as a result. Their predictions are proving to be correct. Russian billionaires have collectively lost over $84 billion dollars since February 16th, sinking the nation’s stock market by 50%. It was in their best interest to help prevent such a catastrophe.
Evidence supports Russian dissent
These are important speculations, however there is already evidence to support the theory that Russian intelligence may be behind strategic public release of information. On Tuesday, the Ukraine Center for Strategic Communications cited Oleksiy Danilov, the Head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council to state that Ukraine received information for a plot to kill Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The post further stated that the plot had been uncovered due to information received directly from FSB because some members do not support the aggression against Ukraine.
The global hacking group, Anonymous, posted leaked documents from Russian troops illustrating the Government’s plan to seize Ukraine between February 20th and March 6th, 2022. The plan was approved on January 18th. Not that anyone truly believed Putin’s enumerated reasons for supposedly invading Ukraine to protect Russians, however these plans show a premeditated plan to invade Ukraine. Furthermore, the leaks bolster the notion that Putin aims to reestablish the Soviet Union and forcefully unify his comrades to do so. The trouble is that many do not support Putin’s outdated dreams. The majority of Europeans, including Russians, no longer dream of this has-been world, especially Millennials. The way forward for millennials includes the ability to travel, opportunities to prosper, and work remotely. The acquisition of former lands and initiation of armed conflicts simply do nothing to add to this goal. Russians do not want to pay the price of suffering the consequences of an isolated economy for Putin’s dream. This is a one-man dream.
Oligarchs speak out
The oligarchs, said to hold about 30% of Russia’s wealth, have the most to lose monetarily. The wealth of Russian oligarchs has been heavily targeted and sanctioned by the U.S. and European allies. In a stunning turn of events, Switzerland has broken its neutrality protocol and has frozen assets of wealthy Russian businessmen, including President Putin, Foreign Minister Lavrov, Prime Minister Mishustin as well as 367 other individuals enumerated by the E.U. The U.S. Justice Department launched a task force known as “KleptoCapture” this week to further advance the capabilities of the West to strain Russia’s finances and abilities to carry out the “special operation” in Ukraine. Biden announced that the U.S. would seize “ill-begotten gains” including luxury apartments, yachts and private jets that belong to wealthy Russians with ties to Putin.
And so far, the first few rounds of sanctions seem to be effective. Putin’s ultra-wealthy inner circle have been cautious to never mention the President by name, however they have gone on to publicly condemn the “bloodshed” in Ukraine. Mikhail Fridman, the founder of Russia’s largest private bank, Alfa Bank, first went on the record to voice his dissent against the war. Other wealthy businessmen include steel magnate Alexei Mordashov; metals mogul Oleg Deripaska; Oleg Tinkoff, founder of Tinkoff Bank; and Roman Abramovich, the owner of English soccer team Chelsea. Abramovich announced that he will sell Chelsea FC, with the proceeds going to help Ukrainians who have been affected by the invasion. Roman Abramovich is not on the list of Russians sanctioned by the United Kingdom. He has, however, actively participated in recent Russian-Ukraine negotiations in Belarus.
It is the first time that members of Putin's closest circle have spoken out openly and extensively against the Russian president's objectives. The Biden administration is poised to impose further sanctions on Russia's gas and oil industries later this week, seemingly aiming to torpedo the Russian economy. It is not only wealthy Russians who will suffer, but the middle class as well. Still, it seems Russian oligarchs will be the ones who will be most impacted to the greatest extent.
Russians against the War
Citizens in over 60 Russian cities are protesting the war in Ukraine. There are many Russians that have objected to the war in Ukraine and the FSB may be sympathetic to those concerns. Ukraine explicitly stated that Russian spies may have saved President Zelenskyy’s life. On the other hand, Russian oligarchs have dealt with targeted sanctions in years prior and most likely understood the consequences the war on Ukraine would beget. By suppressing the wealthy lifestyles of prominent Russians, the world may finally be able to impact Putin’s inner circle. These are unparalleled actions by Russian spies and oligarchs. How all of these objections will impact Putin, we have yet to find out.
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